Rocket Lab Due-Diligence (DD)

‘We Open Access to Space to Improve Life on Earth.’

Introduction

With the 2024 first launch of the Rocket Lab Mega Constellation Launcher—The Neutron—fast approaching, I decided it is high time for a more up-to-date DD on Rocket Lab. A lot is happening in the industry, the company, and the world. I have decided to dive into the future, fundamentals, industry, funding, financials, dreams, and of course, the memes of the aspiring space company. Now, I am posting my DD into both of the Rocket Lab subreddit, as I am new to writing DD and I want to hit as wide of an audience as I can. One disclaimer (for those who do not like stock talk), this DD is not meant to encourage buying of the stock, nor is it financial advice or a stock-only DD, I merely want to dive into this company and simply spark some discussion on it!
Now, Rocket Lab is a private aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider. The company was founded in 2006 by Peter Beck and is headquartered in Long Beach, California, with additional facilities in New Zealand and Australia. Rocket Lab specializes in the development and launch of small rockets capable of delivering payloads of up to 300 kilograms to low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab—self-designated as a leader in launch and space systems—is a company that has a chance at becoming a highly profitable giant over the next decade and beyond. In my honest opinion, Rocket Lab currently thrives off of the crumbs of the current space industry ecosystem. With Space X increasingly focused upon one goal—thanks to their controversial, yet nevertheless, fearless leader—being Mars, Rocket Labs can (and in my opinion will) become one of the go-to space companies for low earth orbit launches in the near term and in the long-term become one of the go-to space company for launches between the Moon, Venus, and Mars as well. Rocket Lab currently lives off of the crumbs left behind by NASA, Space X, and the United States military-industrial complex.
Like these two legends from the movie War Dogs, Rocket Lab is determined to become the go-to space company for transporting all types of goods into orbit. For those of you who have not seen the movie (I personally highly recommend it), essentially, when these two start their arms-dealing company, they focus upon all of the small contracts that the government is putting out for arms supplies. The contracts that the big players are ignoring, due to their small sizes, even so, these small contracts are worth hundreds of thousands to low millions. Now, this is where Rocket Lab currently lies in the industry.
\"A new space race has begun, and most Americans are not even aware of it. This race is not [about] political prestige or military power. This new race involves the whole human species in a contest against time.\" - Ben Bova
Now, before I dive into everything here, I need every to understand that this industry is on the verge of immense change and rapid evolution. We are currently in the first stage of the world’s Second Space Race. As a student of History, I can confidently tell you that there are murmurings within the historical community, that this is the case, beginning with the creation and success of Space X’s first reusable rocket: the Falcon 9. On December 21st of 2015, when the first Falcon 9 was launched and the landing was successful with the first stage fully recovered, the race began. In the same way that there is no single company above all others in the airline, shipping & transportation, or car manufacturing industries, is the same reason I do not believe that Space X will alone run the space industry’s transportation needs. There is plenty of room for companies like Rocket Lab to fill the gaps Space X cannot and in a decade’s time, there will be plenty of room for even more companies. Yet, there are no companies that are even close to competing with Space X—other than Rocket Lab—at this time. Now, I won’t go deeply into most of these competitors in this deep dive, but to be short, Astra is on the verge of total failure, Virgin Galactic has been playing an entirely different game—space tourism, which there is a massive market for, just perhaps won’t be penetrated by them—they likewise seem to be failing. While Blue Origin has been playing a strong game and Space X an even stronger one, albeit more and more focused solely on Mars as the years go on.
Here you can see the 1-year charts of Rocket Lab, Astra, Virgin, and Boeing for reference, as you can see, these charts speak volumes. Rocket Lab has been having a tough year but has found a nice bottom and is consistently bouncing from lows in the $2.92-3 range. While Astra has been reduced to a penny stock, with their future unknown. Virgin Galactic is only maintaining below Rocket Lab’s share price, partly due to the large number of Retail investors that do not know much and refuse to let it die, coupled with a small hope that the company can recover in the coming years. Boeing is here for reference as to what a successful, large-cap company involved in a similar industry (and the space industry as well), should look like over the course of a decent year.
Now, there are a few assumptions that I am making that we need to cover before diving into the real DD: Whether it be because we live in the beginnings of a second Space Race (fueled by privatized space companies and the world’s governments) or because of technological advancement and a rising interest in space, the increase in rocket launches, space development (in Earth’s orbit, the Moon, and Mars), and the lowering costs of space launches… it will become exponentially cheaper, easier, and faster to launch into orbit and the industry as a whole will have a massive boom—akin, in a way, to the industrial revolution—over the mid-to-late 2020s into the early 2030s. With the mid-to-end 2030s and early 2040s, we will see massive developments in terms of low-Earth orbit manufacturing facilities, tourist destinations, and stations, as well as settlements on the Moon for mining and refueling for greater exploration and colonization of the Sol System as a whole.
Now these are in part assumptions, but I think once one does the research and looks at the fact, all of this is very achievable. Even if it does not occur in this way, you can shift the dates by an additional decade and every time you do, the more likely, easier, and cheaper it all becomes.
Rocket Lab's business model revolves around providing cost-effective and frequent access to space for small satellite operators. The company aims to simplify the process of deploying satellites by offering dedicated launches on its Electron rocket. Rocket Lab operates as an end-to-end service provider, handling the entire launch process from mission planning and payload integration to launch and on-orbit operations.

Section 1: Rocket Lab Takes Flight! The Electron & the Neutron

‘Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company delivering reliable launch services, complete spacecraft design and manufacturing, satellite components, flight software, and an on-orbit management.’ – Rocket Labs
Rocket Lab's primary launch vehicle, the Electron, is a two-stage rocket powered by Rutherford engines, which use electric-pump-fed LOX/RP-1 propellants. The Electron is designed to optimize cost, flexibility, and rapid launch capability for small satellites. Rocket Lab has demonstrated numerous successful launches since its inaugural flight in 2017, showcasing its technological prowess and reliability. The small satellite market has been growing rapidly, driven by increased demand for data collection, communications, and Earth observation. Rocket Lab's focus on dedicated launches for small satellites positions it well to capture a significant portion of this expanding market. The company has already established a solid customer base, securing contracts with government agencies, research institutions, and commercial entities.
Rocket Labs—at the time of writing this—has had 37 launches—with a 91.89% success rate—deployed 164 satellites, operates 3 launch pads, and is maintaining 3 Photon Satellites in the Earth’s orbit. Of the 164 satellites launched by Rocket Labs, they were commissioned to do so by a wide variety of clients, from NASA, Space Force, DARPA, to Canon. Rocket Labs is supported by Future Fund: Australia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, Khosla Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, Data Collective, Greenspring Associates, ACC, Promus Ventures, L One W One Ltd., and Lockheed Martin.
Rocket Lab’s main rocket, the Electron—built and operated by Rocket Lab—has flown 37 times and been successful 34 times, with only 3 failures. Rocket Lab’s key areas of business penetration lie in the launch of mid-sized service rockets, the manufacturing of space systems and satellites, and their adept ability to manufacture industrial space parts, applications, and proponents. The latter of which, they are sort of unopposed in terms of competition.
The Neutron—Rocket Lab’s medium-lift, mega constellation launcher—will be able to launch 13,000 kilograms into low Earth orbit and it will be …drum roll please… reusable! The current goal is for it to launch in 2024. It will be designed for not only low earth orbital supply missions, but also deep space missions, and even human spaceflight. It will be fairing a design allowing for full reusability of the first stage and it will be lightweight, being made of Rock Lab’s own carbon composite structure. The home base for the Neutron will be at the Neutron Production Complex and the launch pad at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility and Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on the Eastern Shore of Virginia.
‘The Neutron Production Complex will be home to a rocket production, assembly, and integration facility, as well as a dedicated launch pad for the Neutron rocket located on the southern end of Wallops Island. The estimated 250,000 square foot state-of-the-art complex will be constructed on a 28-acre site adjacent to the Wallops Island Flight Facility and will include a Launch Control Center, Rocket Lab’s fifth global operations center for launch activities and on-orbit operations. To support rapid production of the Neutron rocket, current plans for the complex include automated fiber placement robotic production systems capable of laying up meters of Neutron’s new, specially formulated carbon composite structures in minutes. As a reusable rocket, Neutron is designed to land back on the Launch Complex 3 pad after a mission and from there it would be returned to the production complex for refurbishment and re-flight.’
With Space X dominating large-load space orbital flight and transportation, Rocket Labs, in my honest opinion, is where Space X was roughly something like 6-8 years ago. While Rocket Lab intends to compete with Space X—whether it will be considered competition in an industry this brand new and small, time will tell—for cargo and humans to the low Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and even Venus! Space X and Elon Musk have made it abundantly clear that the goal of Space X is the large-scale settlement of Mars. While later models of Rocket Lab’s Neutron will be able to go to Mars and Venus, it appears that is not their main goal. In the near term (being the next two decades), they will be looking to dominate the low Earth orbit and Moon market as well as the manufacturing of industrial space parts, applications, and proponents.

Section 2: The Space Industry & Company Fundamentals

Rocket Lab faces competition from other commercial launch providers, such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Orbit. However, the company differentiates itself by specializing in small satellite launches, offering a tailored solution for this niche market. Rocket Lab's Electron rocket provides the advantage of dedicated launches and the flexibility to reach specific orbits, making it an attractive option for small satellite operators.
Rocket Lab has raised significant funding through various investment rounds, securing capital from venture capital firms, strategic partners, and government entities. Notable investors include Khosla Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Lockheed Martin. The company's ability to attract substantial investment indicates confidence in its business model and growth potential. Rocket Lab operates within the regulatory framework of the countries in which it launches its rockets. The company holds necessary licenses and approvals from government agencies, such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States and the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). Compliance with safety regulations and adherence to environmental guidelines are crucial aspects of Rocket Lab's operations.
Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces several risks and challenges. The space industry is highly competitive, and the success of the company depends on its ability to secure launch contracts and maintain a steady launch cadence. Regulatory changes, launch failures, or delays could impact Rocket Lab's operations and reputation. Additionally, the emergence of new technologies or market disruptors could pose a threat to the company's market position
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room, the Quarterly Results. To preface, negative quarterly results mean—pardon my French—jack-shit (at least in the short term) for a company such as Rocket Lab, that is looking at penetrating a market such as the space industry. We are going to look at the past four Quarterly Results in chronological order.
Q2 2022 Report: Rocket Lab achieved record revenue of $55.5 million, showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter (36% sequential growth) and the same quarter in the previous year (392% YoY growth). Despite the revenue growth, the company reported a negative EPS of $-0.08, indicating a net loss for the quarter.
Q3 2022 Report: Another record revenue was achieved, reaching $63.1 million, with a sequential growth of 14% and an impressive YoY growth of 1,093%. The company's EPS improved slightly to $-0.07 but still remained negative. The fourth quarter revenue is expected to be lower, ranging between $51 million and $54 million, as a launch customer's push extends into 2023.
Q4 2022 Report: The company's revenue for Q4 reached $51.8 million, showing a healthy year-over-year growth of 88%. The full-year revenue for fiscal 2022 amounted to $211 million, reflecting substantial growth of 239% compared to the previous year. The EPS remained negative at $-0.08.
Q1 2023 Report: The revenue for Q1 2023 was $54.9 million. Increasing revenue by 35% in the first quarter of 2023. Revenue from their launch business was $19.6 million, up $12 million from the prior quarter. Their EPS was $-0.08, indicating strong maintenance of their business. The second quarter is expected to show a significant revenue increase, with an estimated range of $60 million to $63 million.
Now, what does this all tell us? Firstly, they were very forthcoming with the quarterly expectations. Something one might think is not a big deal, but considering how a lot of publicly traded companies operate, this is a good thing. In each of their earnings reports, they have nearly exactly estimated their results, showing they are not attempting to mislead investors. The company has experienced impressive revenue growth throughout the reported quarters, indicating strong market performance and demand for its products/services. However, the negative EPS values suggest that the company is still operating at a net loss. From a shareholder’s perspective, the company's focus should be on achieving profitability and reducing the negative EPS, while maintaining consistent revenue growth. In my opinion, this stock is sitting just below a fair market value for what it is right now, sitting at just over $4, considering they are not fully profitable. Yet Rocket Lab continues to grow its business, making more contracts, and it stands a competitive chance. If they can turn a profit within 2-3 years, I think they will be one hell of a company. With their competitors failing left and right and none finding the success as Rocket Lab—other than Space X—they could stand to be a massive company in a few decades, so massive, they’re bigger than Earth.
One last financial point to touch upon… shorting, so here is some data, which is roughly one month outdated due to my difficulty in finding up-to-date information on the company without a Bloomberg Terminal (So, if anyone on the sub has access to a Bloomberg Terminal and would like to add to my DD in the comments, please do).
Last Record Date: May 15, 2023
Outstanding Shares: 478,660,000 shares
Float Size: 262,310,000 shares
Short Percent of Float: 9.80% (The short percent of float represents the percentage of shares available for trading that have been sold short).
Average Trading Volume: 4,044,396 shares
Current Short Volume: 25,710,000 shares
Previous Short Volume: 24,630,000 shares
Change Vs. Previous Month: +4.38%
Dollar Volume Sold Short: $111.58 million
Short Interest Ratio / Days to Cover: 7.7 (This ratio indicates the number of days it would take for the short sellers to cover their positions based on the average daily trading volume.).
The short interest in Rocket Lab has increased from the previous month, with a change of +4.38%. The short percent of the float is 9.80%, indicating that a significant portion of the available shares for trading has been sold short. Now, Rocket Lab’s short interest is relatively low for a company that has had consistent negative EPS and revenue. Showcasing that the big players in markets either A) believe this company will make a massive turnaround in the near future (1-3 years mark) or B) Rocket Lab, due to its size, is thankfully not on their radar. However, that said, the off-exchange short percentage is 57.69%, showcasing that A) public on-exchange short volume is a complete hoax and Hedge Funds, and other big players are beating down on the stock or B) all of this information is completely misrepresented to retail traders on purpose and the entirety of the United States market system is a complete farce.

Section 3: Future Prospects & Big Moves

Rocket Lab has demonstrated strong performance and growth potential in the emerging small satellite launch market. The company continues to refine its launch processes, aiming to increase launch frequency and reduce costs further. Additionally, Rocket Lab has plans to develop a larger reusable rocket called Neutron, targeting the medium-lift market segment, which would expand its capabilities and market reach. The company has the potential to be the go-to company for low Earth orbital launches in the short term and in the long term, one of, if not the go-to company, for transportation to the Moon, Mars, and Venus.
Peter Beck, founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, did an interview last month on his take on the industry and their future prospects. I wanted to touch briefly on this (you can find the video on YouTube).
Firstly, the video begins with the commentator stating, "With the Space Race this week," the Space X rocket, the most powerful ever built, has scrubbed its launch. While Rocket Lab is adding a new service for testing hypersonic sub-orbital launches, being a welcome addition to the company’s wide array of services. Beck states that it is a very exciting time, stating that “the United States is kind of lacking behind in hypersonic technologies and this is a great opportunity to have high cadence, test flight environment for these payloads to really move forward the US’s hypersonic research.” He goes on to talk about how these capabilities are essentially repurposed from Rocket Lab’s Electron Rocket capabilities: “We take a standard Electron orbital-class launch vehicle and we fly it in some really unique trajectories to provide these hypersonic trajectories… it is taking an Electron and making a couple wee tweaks to it and having a great high frequency hypersonic testing platform that hasn’t existed.” Beck goes on to speak on the launch cadence “being on target for 15 flights” this year with the fastest turn around this year being 7 days between flights, saying “the machine is cranking and the vehicles are flying successfully and the last flight was a reusable vehicle and we splashed that down successfully and now we’re kind at the point where we are recycling and harvesting engines and components off of those launch vehicles and getting ready to put them back into service and re-fly them.” He continues, stating, “I’m not sure if I’m allowed to say exactly, but… a whole multiple gambit of reused components that are all now re-entering the production line and going back into service.” Morgan Brennan, the interviewer then speaks to how there is this emerging mismatch between supply and demand when it comes to the satellite launch market, with the fact that there are so many satellite constellations that are poised to go into orbit in the coming years and not enough capacity in terms of launching them. So, she then asks about the reusability of Electron and the development of the Neutron. Beck states that, “Electron is really serving that market very well, and there are lots of flight opportunities that are sort of just doing its thing, Neutron is the new flight opportunity for us… 2026 to 2030 timeframe there is a massive deficit in launch and there are lots of constellations that are all really vying for an ability to get in orbit, so we saw that coming and started work on the vehicle and hopefully we can bring it into service in 2024 and really solve some of those problems and take advantage of that market opportunity.”
Now, I don’t have to tell you all that this is very good to hear from Beck and this is very exciting, showcasing that he really believes Rocket Lab can penetrate this market and become a big player in the ever-evolving industry.
Rocket Lab Making Big Moves Lately:
· Bought SPCE launch platforms in Florida, this was a big win for the company, and folk on the sub were very excited to see this happen. Yay! But, sad and unfortunate for Virgin Galactic, which I am sure many of us space enthusiasts had higher hopes for, oh well, not everyone can achieve their dreams.
· Rocket Lab reached a new Company record of nine launches within a calendar year.
· Achieved a record of 100% mission success for Electron launches for the year.
· Successfully launched CAPSTONE mission to the Moon for NASA, including the first demonstration of Lunar Photon spacecraft platform.
· Successfully deployed two satellites to space for NASA’s TROPICS mission on the first of two dedicated launches on Electron for the constellation scheduled in May 2023.
· Secured another NASA mission to Electron’s 2023 launch manifest with its Starling mission. Rocket Lab was selected by NASA to launch the Starling mission on an expedited timeline due to long delays and uncertainty with the mission’s original launch provider.
· Signed multiple new launch contracts on Electron for 2023 for undisclosed commercial satellite customers previously manifested on another small launch vehicle, demonstrating Electron’s strong position as a reliable and dependable ride to orbit for small satellite operators.
· Introduced Rocket Lab’s new HASTE launch vehicle, a suborbital testbed launch vehicle derived from the Company’s Electron rocket to provide reliable, high-cadence flight test opportunities to support the development of advanced hypersonic systems technology.
· Announced that the Company will fly a pre-launched 3D printed Rutherford engine on an upcoming mission in Q3’23, a major step in evolving the Electron launch vehicle into a reusable rocket.
· Delivered financial results that exceeded the high end of prior guidance for revenue and gross margin.
· Launched three successful Electron missions in the first quarter for commercial constellation operators HawkEye 360, Capella Space, and BlackSky.
· Successfully completed the Company’s first launch from its U.S. launch site, Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2, at the Virginia Spaceport Authority’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on January 24, 2023. The mission deployed three satellites for radio frequency geospatial analytics provider HawkEye 360.
· Successfully completed the Company’s fastest turnaround between launches to date – just seven days between its 34th Electron launch, “Stronger Together”, from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2 in Virginia on March 16, 2023, and its 35th Electron launch, “The Beat Goes On”, from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand on March 24, 2023.
· Rocket Lab remains the only U.S. commercial small launch provider to successfully deliver satellites to orbit in 2023. Secured a multi-mission contract with Capella Space to launch four more dedicated launches on Electron in 2023.
· Achieved programmatic milestones for the Company’s two Photon spacecraft to support NASA’s ESCAPADE mission to Mars, and for the Photon spacecraft for a Varda Space Industries’ mission to manufacture high-value products in zero gravity. Both Photon programs include Rocket Lab star trackers, reaction wheels, solar panels, flight software, and radios – demonstrating the value and strength of the Company’s vertical integration and in-house supply chain.

Conclusion: An Ode to Humanity's Future

Rocket Lab has established itself as a leading player in the small satellite launch market, offering dedicated launch services tailored to the needs of small satellite operators. The company's technological capabilities, solid customer base, and innovative approach position it well for future growth.
Those who lived and grew up in the 1960s and 1970s believed that by the 21st century, mankind would be a space-faring civilization. People had a fascination with the unknown. It was embedded in pop culture, in movies like the 2001 Space Odyssey, Alien, and the Star Trek series. But the unfortunate truth is that after Apollo 17 on the 19th of December 1972, mankind has not left low-earth orbit. The American public lost interest, the government cut funding, and the Saturn V rockets were dismantled and replaced by space shuttles in the 1980s (spaceships not even built to leave low-earth orbit). The curiosity and desire to unravel the mystery of the universe are now again filling the hearts of people. Technology is becoming more advanced and cheaper.
With companies like Rocket Lab and Space X, the future is looking bright. We currently live in an era of mass information. One of the hardest aspects of life in the early-21st-century is learning how to filter all this information. The news of the accomplishments of Rocket Lab, Space X, Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Space Force, are lost in the large volume of collective data. The average person does not believe how close we are to colonizing Luna and Mars; how close we are to becoming a multi-planetary species. If you walked up to someone on the street of New York City, today, and told them that in the mid-2040s, and by the latest, the 2050s, there will be hundreds if not thousands of people living in Earth's orbit, the upper atmosphere of Venus, the Moon, and Mars, the person would dismiss you in disbelief. But the same would have happened if you walked up to a person on the street of New York City on the 19th of July 1962 (before Kennedy’s speech) and told them that mankind would step foot on the moon in seven years. Companies like Rocket Lab, which will make orbital flight and transportation affordable, will allow for a new era of civilization, one which was only present and dreamed of in science fiction of the past.
The Earth, as imaged from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, was suspended in a sunbeam, as the interstellar craft exited the Sol system in 1990. Earth is nearly 4 billion miles away in this image. That is us. That is humanity, all of us that have thus far, ever existed. We take to the stars in search of not only answers but in search of a purpose.

Rocket Lab Due-Diligence (DD)

‘We Open Access to Space to Improve Life on Earth.’

Introduction

With the 2024 first launch of the Rocket Lab Mega Constellation Launcher—The Neutron—fast approaching, I decided it is high time for a more up-to-date DD on Rocket Lab. A lot is happening in the industry, the company, and the world. I have decided to dive into the future, fundamentals, industry, funding, financials, dreams, and of course, the memes of the aspiring space company. Now, I am posting my DD into both of the Rocket Lab subreddit, as I am new to writing DD and I want to hit as wide of an audience as I can. One disclaimer (for those who do not like stock talk), this DD is not meant to encourage buying of the stock, nor is it financial advice or a stock-only DD, I merely want to dive into this company and simply spark some discussion on it!
Now, Rocket Lab is a private aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider. The company was founded in 2006 by Peter Beck and is headquartered in Long Beach, California, with additional facilities in New Zealand and Australia. Rocket Lab specializes in the development and launch of small rockets capable of delivering payloads of up to 300 kilograms to low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab—self-designated as a leader in launch and space systems—is a company that has a chance at becoming a highly profitable giant over the next decade and beyond. In my honest opinion, Rocket Lab currently thrives off of the crumbs of the current space industry ecosystem. With Space X increasingly focused upon one goal—thanks to their controversial, yet nevertheless, fearless leader—being Mars, Rocket Labs can (and in my opinion will) become one of the go-to space companies for low earth orbit launches in the near term and in the long-term become one of the go-to space company for launches between the Moon, Venus, and Mars as well. Rocket Lab currently lives off of the crumbs left behind by NASA, Space X, and the United States military-industrial complex.
Like these two legends from the movie War Dogs, Rocket Lab is determined to become the go-to space company for transporting all types of goods into orbit. For those of you who have not seen the movie (I personally highly recommend it), essentially, when these two start their arms-dealing company, they focus upon all of the small contracts that the government is putting out for arms supplies. The contracts that the big players are ignoring, due to their small sizes, even so, these small contracts are worth hundreds of thousands to low millions. Now, this is where Rocket Lab currently lies in the industry.
\"A new space race has begun, and most Americans are not even aware of it. This race is not [about] political prestige or military power. This new race involves the whole human species in a contest against time.\" - Ben Bova
Now, before I dive into everything here, I need every to understand that this industry is on the verge of immense change and rapid evolution. We are currently in the first stage of the world’s Second Space Race. As a student of History, I can confidently tell you that there are murmurings within the historical community, that this is the case, beginning with the creation and success of Space X’s first reusable rocket: the Falcon 9. On December 21st of 2015, when the first Falcon 9 was launched and the landing was successful with the first stage fully recovered, the race began. In the same way that there is no single company above all others in the airline, shipping & transportation, or car manufacturing industries, is the same reason I do not believe that Space X will alone run the space industry’s transportation needs. There is plenty of room for companies like Rocket Lab to fill the gaps Space X cannot and in a decade’s time, there will be plenty of room for even more companies. Yet, there are no companies that are even close to competing with Space X—other than Rocket Lab—at this time. Now, I won’t go deeply into most of these competitors in this deep dive, but to be short, Astra is on the verge of total failure, Virgin Galactic has been playing an entirely different game—space tourism, which there is a massive market for, just perhaps won’t be penetrated by them—they likewise seem to be failing. While Blue Origin has been playing a strong game and Space X an even stronger one, albeit more and more focused solely on Mars as the years go on.
Here you can see the 1-year charts of Rocket Lab, Astra, Virgin, and Boeing for reference, as you can see, these charts speak volumes. Rocket Lab has been having a tough year but has found a nice bottom and is consistently bouncing from lows in the $2.92-3 range. While Astra has been reduced to a penny stock, with their future unknown. Virgin Galactic is only maintaining below Rocket Lab’s share price, partly due to the large number of Retail investors that do not know much and refuse to let it die, coupled with a small hope that the company can recover in the coming years. Boeing is here for reference as to what a successful, large-cap company involved in a similar industry (and the space industry as well), should look like over the course of a decent year.
Now, there are a few assumptions that I am making that we need to cover before diving into the real DD: Whether it be because we live in the beginnings of a second Space Race (fueled by privatized space companies and the world’s governments) or because of technological advancement and a rising interest in space, the increase in rocket launches, space development (in Earth’s orbit, the Moon, and Mars), and the lowering costs of space launches… it will become exponentially cheaper, easier, and faster to launch into orbit and the industry as a whole will have a massive boom—akin, in a way, to the industrial revolution—over the mid-to-late 2020s into the early 2030s. With the mid-to-end 2030s and early 2040s, we will see massive developments in terms of low-Earth orbit manufacturing facilities, tourist destinations, and stations, as well as settlements on the Moon for mining and refueling for greater exploration and colonization of the Sol System as a whole.
Now these are in part assumptions, but I think once one does the research and looks at the fact, all of this is very achievable. Even if it does not occur in this way, you can shift the dates by an additional decade and every time you do, the more likely, easier, and cheaper it all becomes.
Rocket Lab's business model revolves around providing cost-effective and frequent access to space for small satellite operators. The company aims to simplify the process of deploying satellites by offering dedicated launches on its Electron rocket. Rocket Lab operates as an end-to-end service provider, handling the entire launch process from mission planning and payload integration to launch and on-orbit operations.

Section 1: Rocket Lab Takes Flight! The Electron & the Neutron

‘Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company delivering reliable launch services, complete spacecraft design and manufacturing, satellite components, flight software, and on-orbit management.’ – Rocket Labs
Rocket Lab's primary launch vehicle, the Electron, is a two-stage rocket powered by Rutherford engines, which use electric-pump-fed LOX/RP-1 propellants. The Electron is designed to optimize cost, flexibility, and rapid launch capability for small satellites. Rocket Lab has demonstrated numerous successful launches since its inaugural flight in 2017, showcasing its technological prowess and reliability. The small satellite market has been growing rapidly, driven by increased demand for data collection, communications, and Earth observation. Rocket Lab's focus on dedicated launches for small satellites positions it well to capture a significant portion of this expanding market. The company has already established a solid customer base, securing contracts with government agencies, research institutions, and commercial entities.
Rocket Labs—at the time of writing this—has had 37 launches—with a 91.89% success rate—deployed 164 satellites, operates 3 launch pads, and is maintaining 3 Photon Satellites in the Earth’s orbit. Of the 164 satellites launched by Rocket Labs, they were commissioned to do so by a wide variety of clients, from NASA, Space Force, DARPA, to Canon. Rocket Labs is supported by Future Fund: Australia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, Khosla Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, Data Collective, Greenspring Associates, ACC, Promus Ventures, L One W One Ltd., and Lockheed Martin.
Rocket Lab’s main rocket, the Electron—built and operated by Rocket Lab—has flown 37 times and been successful 34 times, with only 3 failures. Rocket Lab’s key areas of business penetration lie in the launch of mid-sized service rockets, the manufacturing of space systems and satellites, and their adept ability to manufacture industrial space parts, applications, and proponents. The latter of which, they are sort of unopposed in terms of competition.
The Neutron—Rocket Lab’s medium-lift, mega constellation launcher—will be able to launch 13,000 kilograms into low Earth orbit and it will be …drum roll please… reusable! The current goal is for it to launch in 2024. It will be designed for not only low earth orbital supply missions, but also deep space missions, and even human spaceflight. It will be fairing a design allowing for full reusability of the first stage and it will be lightweight, being made of Rock Lab’s own carbon composite structure. The home base for the Neutron will be at the Neutron Production Complex and the launch pad at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility and Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on the Eastern Shore of Virginia.
‘The Neutron Production Complex will be home to a rocket production, assembly, and integration facility, as well as a dedicated launch pad for the Neutron rocket located on the southern end of Wallops Island. The estimated 250,000 square-foot state-of-the-art complex will be constructed on a 28-acre site adjacent to the Wallops Island Flight Facility and will include a Launch Control Center, Rocket Lab’s fifth global operations center for launch activities and on-orbit operations. To support rapid production of the Neutron rocket, current plans for the complex include automated fiber placement robotic production systems capable of laying up meters of Neutron’s new, specially formulated carbon composite structures in minutes. As a reusable rocket, Neutron is designed to land back on the Launch Complex 3 pad after a mission and from there it would be returned to the production complex for refurbishment and re-flight.’
With Space X dominating large-load space orbital flight and transportation, Rocket Labs, in my honest opinion, is where Space X was roughly something like 6-8 years ago. While Rocket Lab intends to compete with Space X—whether it will be considered competition in an industry this brand new and small, time will tell—for cargo and humans to the low Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and even Venus! Space X and Elon Musk have made it abundantly clear that the goal of Space X is the large-scale settlement of Mars. While later models of Rocket Lab’s Neutron will be able to go to Mars and Venus, it appears that is not their main goal. In the near term (being the next two decades), they will be looking to dominate the low Earth orbit and Moon market as well as the manufacturing of industrial space parts, applications, and proponents.

Section 2: The Space Industry & Company Fundamentals

Rocket Lab faces competition from other commercial launch providers, such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Orbit. However, the company differentiates itself by specializing in small satellite launches, offering a tailored solution for this niche market. Rocket Lab's Electron rocket provides the advantage of dedicated launches and the flexibility to reach specific orbits, making it an attractive option for small satellite operators.
Rocket Lab has raised significant funding through various investment rounds, securing capital from venture capital firms, strategic partners, and government entities. Notable investors include Khosla Ventures, Bessemer Venture Partners, and Lockheed Martin. The company's ability to attract substantial investment indicates confidence in its business model and growth potential. Rocket Lab operates within the regulatory framework of the countries in which it launches its rockets. The company holds necessary licenses and approvals from government agencies, such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States and the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). Compliance with safety regulations and adherence to environmental guidelines are crucial aspects of Rocket Lab's operations.
Despite its achievements, Rocket Lab faces several risks and challenges. The space industry is highly competitive, and the success of the company depends on its ability to secure launch contracts and maintain a steady launch cadence. Regulatory changes, launch failures, or delays could impact Rocket Lab's operations and reputation. Additionally, the emergence of new technologies or market disruptors could pose a threat to the company's market position
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room, the Quarterly Results. To preface, negative quarterly results mean—pardon my French—jack-shit (at least in the short term) for a company such as Rocket Lab, that is looking at penetrating a market such as the space industry. We are going to look at the past four Quarterly Results in chronological order.
Q2 2022 Report: Rocket Lab achieved record revenue of $55.5 million, showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter (36% sequential growth) and the same quarter in the previous year (392% YoY growth). Despite the revenue growth, the company reported a negative EPS of $-0.08, indicating a net loss for the quarter.
Q3 2022 Report: Another record revenue was achieved, reaching $63.1 million, with a sequential growth of 14% and an impressive YoY growth of 1,093%. The company's EPS improved slightly to $-0.07 but still remained negative. The fourth quarter revenue is expected to be lower, ranging between $51 million and $54 million, as a launch customer's push extends into 2023.
Q4 2022 Report: The company's revenue for Q4 reached $51.8 million, showing a healthy year-over-year growth of 88%. The full-year revenue for fiscal 2022 amounted to $211 million, reflecting substantial growth of 239% compared to the previous year. The EPS remained negative at $-0.08.
Q1 2023 Report: The revenue for Q1 2023 was $54.9 million. Increasing revenue by 35% in the first quarter of 2023. Revenue from their launch business was $19.6 million, up $12 million from the prior quarter. Their EPS was $-0.08, indicating a strong maintenance of their business. The second quarter is expected to show a significant revenue increase, with an estimated range of $60 million to $63 million.
Now, what does this all tell us? Firstly, they were very forthcoming with the quarterly expectations. Something one might think is not a big deal, but considering how a lot of publicly traded companies operate, this is a good thing. In each of their earnings reports, they have nearly exactly estimated their results, showing they are not attempting to mislead investors. The company has experienced impressive revenue growth throughout the reported quarters, indicating strong market performance and demand for its products/services. However, the negative EPS values suggest that the company is still operating at a net loss. From a shareholder’s perspective, the company's focus should be on achieving profitability and reducing the negative EPS, while maintaining consistent revenue growth. In my opinion, this stock is sitting just below a fair market value for what it is right now, sitting at just over $4, considering they are not fully profitable. Yet Rocket Lab continues to grow its business, making more contracts, and it stands a competitive chance. If they can turn a profit within 2-3 years, I think they will be one hell of a company. With their competitors failing left and right and none finding the success as Rocket Lab—other than Space X—they could stand to be a massive company in a few decades, so massive, they’re bigger than Earth.
One last financial point to touch upon… shorting, so here is some data, which is roughly one month outdated due to my difficulty in finding up-to-date information on the company without a Bloomberg Terminal (So, if anyone on the sub has access to a Bloomberg Terminal and would like to add to my DD in the comments, please do).
Last Record Date: May 15, 2023
Outstanding Shares: 478,660,000 shares
Float Size: 262,310,000 shares
Short Percent of Float: 9.80% (The short percent of float represents the percentage of shares available for trading that have been sold short).
Average Trading Volume: 4,044,396 shares
Current Short Volume: 25,710,000 shares
Previous Short Volume: 24,630,000 shares
Change Vs. Previous Month: +4.38%
Dollar Volume Sold Short: $111.58 million
Short Interest Ratio / Days to Cover: 7.7 (This ratio indicates the number of days it would take for the short sellers to cover their positions based on the average daily trading volume.).
The short interest in Rocket Lab has increased from the previous month, with a change of +4.38%. The short percent of the float is 9.80%, indicating that a significant portion of the available shares for trading has been sold short. Now, Rocket Lab’s short interest is relatively low for a company that has had consistent negative EPS and revenue. Showcasing that the big players in markets either A) believe this company will make a massive turnaround in the near future (1-3 years mark) or B) Rocket Lab, due to its size, is thankfully not on their radar. However, that said, the off-exchange short percentage is 57.69%, showcasing that A) public on-exchange short volume is a complete hoax and Hedge Funds, and other big players are beating down on the stock or B) all of this information is completely misrepresented to retail traders on purpose and the entirety of the United States market system is a complete farce.

Section 3: Future Prospects & Big Moves

Rocket Lab has demonstrated strong performance and growth potential in the emerging small satellite launch market. The company continues to refine its launch processes, aiming to increase launch frequency and reduce costs further. Additionally, Rocket Lab has plans to develop a larger reusable rocket called Neutron, targeting the medium-lift market segment, which would expand its capabilities and market reach. The company has the potential to be the go-to company for low Earth orbital launches in the short term and in the long term, one of, if not the go-to company, for transportation to the Moon, Mars, and Venus.
Peter Beck, founder, and CEO of Rocket Lab, did an interview last month on his take on the industry and their future prospects. I wanted to touch briefly on this (you can find the video on YouTube).
Firstly, the video begins with the commentator stating, "With the Space Race this week," the Space X rocket, the most powerful ever built, has scrubbed its launch. While Rocket Lab is adding a new service for testing hypersonic sub-orbital launches, being a welcome addition to the company’s wide array of services. Beck states that it is a very exciting time, stating that “the United States is kind of lacking behind in hypersonic technologies and this is a great opportunity to have high cadence, test flight environment for these payloads to really move forward the US’s hypersonic research.” He goes on to talk about how these capabilities are essentially repurposed from Rocket Lab’s Electron Rocket capabilities: “We take a standard Electron orbital-class launch vehicle and we fly it in some really unique trajectories to provide these hypersonic trajectories… it is taking an Electron and making a couple wee tweaks to it and having a great high frequency hypersonic testing platform that hasn’t existed.” Beck goes on to speak on the launch cadence “being on target for 15 flights” this year with the fastest turn around this year being 7 days between flights, saying “the machine is cranking and the vehicles are flying successfully and the last flight was a reusable vehicle and we splashed that down successfully and now we’re kind at the point where we are recycling and harvesting engines and components off of those launch vehicles and getting ready to put them back into service and re-fly them.” He continues, stating, “I’m not sure if I’m allowed to say exactly, but… a whole multiple gambit of reused components that are all now re-entering the production line and going back into service.” Morgan Brennan, the interviewer then speaks to how there is this emerging mismatch between supply and demand when it comes to the satellite launch market, with the fact that there are so many satellite constellations that are poised to go into orbit in the coming years and not enough capacity in terms of launching them. So, she then asks about the reusability of Electron and the development of the Neutron. Beck states that, “Electron is really serving that market very well, and there are lots of flight opportunities that are sort of just doing its thing, Neutron is the new flight opportunity for us… 2026 to 2030 timeframe there is a massive deficit in launch and there are lots of constellations that are all really vying for an ability to get in orbit, so we saw that coming and started work on the vehicle and hopefully we can bring it into service in 2024 and really solve some of those problems and take advantage of that market opportunity.”
Now, I don’t have to tell you all that this is very good to hear from Beck and this is very exciting, showcasing that he really believes Rocket Lab can penetrate this market and become a big player in the ever-evolving industry.
Rocket Lab Making Big Moves Lately:
· Bought SPCE launch platforms in Florida, this was a big win for the company, and folk on the sub were very excited to see this happen. Yay! But, sad and unfortunate for Virgin Galactic, which I am sure many of us space enthusiasts had higher hopes for, oh well, not everyone can achieve their dreams.
· Rocket Lab reached a new Company record of nine launches within a calendar year.
· Achieved a record of 100% mission success for Electron launches for the year.
· Successfully launched CAPSTONE mission to the Moon for NASA, including the first demonstration of Lunar Photon spacecraft platform.
· Successfully deployed two satellites to space for NASA’s TROPICS mission on the first of two dedicated launches on Electron for the constellation scheduled in May 2023.
· Secured another NASA mission to Electron’s 2023 launch manifest with its Starling mission. Rocket Lab was selected by NASA to launch the Starling mission on an expedited timeline due to long delays and uncertainty with the mission’s original launch provider.
· Signed multiple new launch contracts on Electron for 2023 for undisclosed commercial satellite customers previously manifested on another small launch vehicle, demonstrating Electron’s strong position as a reliable and dependable ride to orbit for small satellite operators.
· Introduced Rocket Lab’s new HASTE launch vehicle, a suborbital testbed launch vehicle derived from the Company’s Electron rocket to provide reliable, high-cadence flight test opportunities to support the development of advanced hypersonic systems technology.
· Announced that the Company will fly a pre-launched 3D printed Rutherford engine on an upcoming mission in Q3’23, a major step in evolving the Electron launch vehicle into a reusable rocket.
· Delivered financial results that exceeded the high end of prior guidance for revenue and gross margin.
· Launched three successful Electron missions in the first quarter for commercial constellation operators HawkEye 360, Capella Space, and BlackSky.
· Successfully completed the Company’s first launch from its U.S. launch site, Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2, at the Virginia Spaceport Authority’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on January 24, 2023. The mission deployed three satellites for radio frequency geospatial analytics provider HawkEye 360.
· Successfully completed the Company’s fastest turnaround between launches to date – just seven days between its 34th Electron launch, “Stronger Together”, from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2 in Virginia on March 16, 2023, and its 35th Electron launch, “The Beat Goes On”, from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand on March 24, 2023.
· Rocket Lab remains the only U.S. commercial small launch provider to successfully deliver satellites to orbit in 2023. Secured a multi-mission contract with Capella Space to launch four more dedicated launches on Electron in 2023.
· Achieved programmatic milestones for the Company’s two Photon spacecraft to support NASA’s ESCAPADE mission to Mars, and for the Photon spacecraft for a Varda Space Industries’ mission to manufacture high-value products in zero gravity. Both Photon programs include Rocket Lab star trackers, reaction wheels, solar panels, flight software, and radios – demonstrating the value and strength of the Company’s vertical integration and in-house supply chain.

Conclusion: An Ode to Humanity's Future

Rocket Lab has established itself as a leading player in the small satellite launch market, offering dedicated launch services tailored to the needs of small satellite operators. The company's technological capabilities, solid customer base, and innovative approach position it well for future growth.
Those who lived and grew up in the 1960s and 1970s believed that by the 21st century, mankind would be a space-faring civilization. People had a fascination with the unknown. It was embedded in pop culture, in movies like the 2001 Space Odyssey, Alien, and the Star Trek series. But the unfortunate truth is that after Apollo 17 on the 19th of December 1972, mankind has not left low-earth orbit. The American public lost interest, the government cut funding, and the Saturn V rockets were dismantled and replaced by space shuttles in the 1980s (spaceships not even built to leave low-earth orbit). The curiosity and desire to unravel the mystery of the universe are now again filling the hearts of people. Technology is becoming more advanced and cheaper.
With companies like Rocket Lab and Space X, the future is looking bright. We currently live in an era of mass information. One of the hardest aspects of life in the early-21st-century is learning how to filter all this information. The news of the accomplishments of Rocket Lab, Space X, Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Space Force, are lost in the large volume of collective data. The average person does not believe how close we are to colonizing Luna and Mars; how close we are to becoming a multi-planetary species. If you walked up to someone on the street of New York City, today, and told them that in the mid-2040s, and by the latest, the 2050s, there will be hundreds if not thousands of people living in Earth's orbit, the upper atmosphere of Venus, the Moon, and Mars, the person would dismiss you in disbelief. But the same would have happened if you walked up to a person on the street of New York City on the 19th of July 1962 (before Kennedy’s speech) and told them that mankind would step foot on the moon in seven years. Companies like Rocket Lab, which will make orbital flight and transportation affordable, will allow for a new era of civilization, one which was only present and dreamed of in science fiction of the past.
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The Earth, as imaged from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, was suspended in a sunbeam, as the interstellar craft exited the Sol system in 1990. Earth is nearly 4 billion miles away in this image. That is us. That is humanity, all of us that have thus far, ever existed. We take to the stars in search of not only answers but in search of a purpose.

Only difference I can really see is Dolby Atmos support.

****EDIT: thank you for the responses, I’ll look for a newer model. Looks like this one is dated and would have poor performance.
The search continues…*****
Please be nice I am a noob with the almighty daddy (mommy?) think pad. i have been lurking for a while on here and FB Market Place. Would this be a good pick up?
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Specs ----------
Processor: P8700 (2 Cores, 2 Threads)
Ram: 8GB DDR3
Storage: 120GB SSD
Ports ---------
3x USB 2.0
1x Ethernet 10/100/1000
1x Headphone Jack
1x Mic Jack
Display Out ------------------
1440 x 900 resolution display 1x VGA
Other Info ----------------
Windows 10 Pro Activated
CD/DVD Drive
Wi-Fi Bluetooth Re-pasted with MX-4
Non-Working Battery
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Very strange! My ID Apple is not signed for developer beta, only for public. My iPad running iPadOS 16.4.1 meanwhile in my iPhone 12 Pro with 16.5 there isn’t beta updates voice. Anyone else happening this?

Goofy boy Brutus! Post- splash pad play exhaustion 🤣